"Super" El Niño Forces A Change of Plans

Milly sitting pretty at Raroia East Anchorage, Tuamotus, FP

Cruisers commonly say that their sailing plans with respect to timing and destination is written in the sand, impacted by factors beyond our control, wind direction, wind strength, seasons, visitor pick-ups and drop-offs and changing whims.  Thus, our change in plans is not unexpected but it is a major one and requires a real mission.

The chance of a "Super" El Niño had lodged in my brain even before leaving Mexico.  Although North American news has reported it's effects on the Eastern Seaboard and the Caribbean as a possible relief from hurricanes and tropical storms in the area, they have neglected to mention the increased risk and severity of storms in the South Pacific and the broader area where these storms (read cyclones) may occur. 

In descending order from safe(r) to least safe:  The Marquesas, The Tuamotus and Tahiti and Moorea in the Society Islands.  Once you sail to the Society Islands all others are upwind.  In the Pacific that usually means crashing into waves, motoring and discomfort.  A pretty good reason to opt out or remain in the Marquesas.

Our insurance covers us during cyclone season, Dec 1 to April 30, if we are east of 150 degrees west.  Going from west to east, against the prevailing wind and moving from more to less risky the area includes Tahiti and Moorea and the archipelagos of the Tuamotus, the Marquesas, and the Gambiers in French Polynesia- a great deal of options over a huge area of ocean.  But keep in mind that once we went from one archipelago to the next, each a multi day passage, there is little desire to go upwind to return to the safer area from whence we came.  Our intention was to get a Long Stay visa for French Polynesia and stay at least a year, perhaps two, two years being the visa time limit.  

Ua Puo in the Marquesas was my favourite island in the Marquesa Archipelago.  Incredibly strange and dramatic rock peaks. 

We could stay in the Marquesas, furthest east and north, where there has not been a cyclone since 1983.  They are considered "safe".  A decent option.  However, will this super El Niño year be the exception? Will there be more storms of greater severity even in the Marquesas? Totally unknown. Also, we would need to stay for over a year, arriving April 2026 until the end of the hurricane season, April 2027.  Although stunningly beautiful with sensational hiking, there are only six inhabited islands, 12 total.  The anchorages are deep, mostly narrow, with rock cliffs and coast.  There are no mangroves to push into and tie to for protection.  We didn't see ourselves staying for a year or feeling safe in a tropical depression and neither of us were interested in essentially staying put for another year after just getting back into the swing of the sea and the excitement of exploring.  We both agreed that the Marquesas was out as a cyclone refuge.

Floating the chain, usually with four fenders.  The chain is held up above the bottom in swags between the fenders in order to keep the chair from wrapping around.  Despite always floating the chain in each Tuamotu anchorage, the chain was caught twice.  Getting it unstuck requires patience and gritted teeth.  I raised the anchor until the gypsy could no longer turn, sometimes pulling our entire bow down.  I'd then voice a nervous swear word and drop the chain.  Peter would then approach from a different angle for another try.  Repeat.  Until at last the anchor suddenly came up without further protest.  As the line for each fender came up to the bow roller, I would scramble forward on my tummy with a boat hook to grab the line and haul up the fender, unclipping the carabiner from the chain.  This is not a process to be done with any king of time pressure especially incoming foul weather.  

The Tuamotus, completely different but also sensational, are atolls created by a sinking volcano leaving an oval reef with a pass or two that boats can navigate.  The ocean waves pound on the reef while the lagoon inside is calm as a lake with only wind waves to deal with.  There are bommies throughout the lagoon - coral reef in the form of a column that reach within a meter or less of the surface.  These, of course, are boating hazards but with satellite imagery, maneuvering at the right time when the sun is high and behind the boat, they are easy to see and avoid.  The bommies and lower patches of coral also require a special anchoring technique called "floating the chain".  Fenders or pearl farm buoys are attached to the chain by a line every 10 meters or so as the anchor is let down into an easily visible patch of sand even in 20m depth.  To take the anchor up, the floats have to be unclipped from the chain as they appear under the bow roller.  This takes at least 20 minutes, sometimes much longer if the chain caught on coral despite floating it.  As well, the atoll reef is actually broken into "motus" - it is not a continuous reef.  Instead there are narrow channels that most often connect the ocean to the lagoon at high tide.  Depending on the height of the ocean waves crashing on the reef, ocean water also seeps over the reef into the lagoon.  This means that the lagoon fills with water and the current going through the pass changes with the tide but is also highly impacted by the height of the water in the lagoon compared to in the ocean.  Unless timed properly the pass has a current similar to a rushing river going through it.  If the current going out due to the height difference is against the current going in due to tide the waves in the pass are "boxy" and dangerous to navigate.  On top of all this, the height of the reef above sea level is negligible.  Although there are palms and brush growing on some of the motus with the occasional building and even town on it, there is little to no protection from the wind.  All of these factors, suggested to us that the Tuamotus were not the place to ride out foul weather.

Stunningly beautiful, incredible blues and dramatic surf breaking on the reefs of the atoll.  Truly awesome!  The surf is filling up the lagoon and making the pass current more difficult to navigate.  With high seas, this could be quite dramatic and difficult to predict the best time to leave or enter.

The KonTiki anchorage on Raroia.  We were the only boat there.  It was sublime.  You can see though that what land there is would not provide much protection from high wind.  The water might be only affected by the wind, not the swell and, therefore, relatively flat.  But a strong wind could still mean dragging anchors onto lee shores or bommies.  For all these reasons, the Tuamotus was not where we felt safe to wait out a "Super El Niño" cyclone season.

On to the Society's.  Tahiti and Moor'ea were within our insured territory for cyclone season.  We spent 2 weeks in Moor'ea.  When we arrived, we thought we could spend the season there.  It was beautiful.  Large enough for great hiking, inhabited enough for good provisioning, restaurants etc.  But it is further west, hence, at greater risk for cyclones, especially this year.  And although lovely, we accomplished the best hikes while we were there and weren't keen on spending a year between the two islands.  

The mouth of Cook's Bay, our two week anchorage in Moorea.  When we arrived, we thought, why leave?

Milly with the southwest side of Cook's Bay backdrop.

Cook's Bay west.  We hiked along the edge of the pineapple field up to the lower part of the ridge and then down to a juice factory for some refreshing sampling.

Southeast side of Cook's Bay.  We hiked up to the ridge beside the higher visible peak.  A very small village at the head of the bay offered a decent supermarket, a few stands of fruit, a school, police/firestation, a couple of restaurants and a very small residential area.

And so, after lots of discussion and deliberation, we have decided to leave French Polynesia after our trip to Canada for the summer.  We will try to visit the rest of the Society Islands before our 23 days left on our 90-day visa expires.  Then we will do four multi-day passages, stopping first in the Cook Islands, hopefully a pitstop in Nuie, then to Tonga, then to the Minerva Reef and ending in New Zealand.  We have consulted a weather guy from NZ who counsels that we arrive in NZ as early as possible in October to avoid as much of the increasingly foul weather as possible on the way.  Realistically, we hope to be there by the end of October, keeping our fingers crossed that we will have ample weather windows.

French Polynesia has proven to be astoundingly beautiful.  I will recount more of our experiences with especial attention to the views, in later posts that I hope are coming soon.  I wanted to get this change in plans out there to explain why we are moving so fast.  We are disappointed not to give FP more time to explore but we are excited to be on our way as well.  We're only half way across the Pacific Ocean.  Thankfully, for the next half there will be island stops along the way.  Stay tuned.

The current plan is to leave French Polynesia by the first week of September and then race the weather through Cook Islands, Niue, Tonga, Minerva Reef to New Zealand, north island.